The latest Populus MP Panel uncovers a representative sample of MPs about their predictions for the year ahead. From a sample of 129 MPs, all but three went out on a limb and said that one or more of the following will happen by 31 December 2019.

On Brexit

The how and when of the UK’s departure from the EU is still very much an unknown, but 73% of MPs believe that the UK will have left by the end of the year. The Conservatives are most sure about this with 90% agreeing, whereas only 56% of Labour and 44% of the SNP feel the same.

However, the question of who will be leading us out of the EU is less certain. Only a third 34% of MPs think that both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will be leading their parties into 2020, with 11% believing that neither will be party leaders.

Despite rumours that David Cameron is bored having stepped down as Prime Minister, only one MP expects him to return to frontline politics – and they’re from the opposition party.

On politics

Less than half (45%) expect a new political party to be formed. With most of the fieldwork completed before the establishment of the Independent Group on February 18th, that figure would surely be higher if asked now. Even a few days before the split, the majority of MPs did not think that one was on the horizon.

Only 11% forecast that Donald Trump is heading for impeachment. More famous for firing others, it looks like he is safe for now even if there are many in the USA who would love to deliver the famous “you’re fired” line to their President.

On infrastructure

Despite voting for expansion last year, only a third of MPs (35%) think planning permission for Heathrow expansion will be approved by the end of the year. It looks even worse for Crossrail, just 12% believe the cross-London service will be fully operational before 2020. Despite stiff headwinds hitting HS2, only 11% of MPs think it will be scrapped.

On sport

Just over a third of MPs (36%) foresee Liverpool FC as Premier League champions this year. With Manchester City recently overtaking the Merseysiders in the table, it looks like ‘it’s all to play for’.

On music

Only a handful (9%) of MPs expect Sporty, Scary, Baby and Ginger will convince Posh to ‘get the band back together’. We have to ask, will it be the same without her?

The Populus Twitter and LinkedIn accounts will of course keep you up to date on the outcomes of all of these across 2019 and will look again at how successful these predictions prove to be come 2020.

Populus regularly interviews over 100 MPs from across the political spectrum about a range of topics. It enables businesses in all sectors to measure what key stakeholder audiences think of major issues that confront their industry, explore the attitudes of these influential groups towards the issues that companies face, and test the effectiveness of key messages. Find out more about the Populus MP Panel here.

Methodology

Populus interviewed 129 MPs between January 11 and February 25 2019 online or by self-completion postal questionnaire. Results were weighted in order to ensure the sample was representative of the party composition of the House of Commons. See poll tables here

Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more information, see www.populus.co.uk


Adam King

Adam is a Research Executive and MP Panel Manager at Populus. He has delivered stakeholder and consumer research to clients in various sectors including sports, infrastructure and technology – providing insight into the views of the public, politicians and journalists. Adam researches public opinion quantitatively and qualitatively for political organisations, government departments, and businesses. Recent clients include the Premier League, Heathrow and the Department for International Trade.

He joined Populus in 2017 after previously working for CBRE where he conducted research into the workplace environment. He graduated from Leicester University with a 2.1 in International Relations and has also previously worked as a PR agent in the music industry.