Michael Ashcroft

Issue

Michael Ashcroft, in tandem with his support for Conservative candidates in marginal seats at the 2005 general election, wanted to build a clear picture of public opinion on the questions that would determine the outcome of the general election. He sought to measure the true level of support for the parties and to establish the underlying attributes associated with each. He also aimed to establish whether the state of opinion in marginal constituencies reflected that in Britain as a whole.

Solution

Populus contributed to this process with a series of groundbreaking pieces of research, including the biggest political poll ever conducted in Britain, with a sample of 10,000. This included:

• a tracking poll monitoring daily movements in opinion from January 2005 until the May election;

• polls and focus groups in specific marginal constituencies around the country;
• a national post-election ‘call-back’ survey to establish why people voted as they did.

Outcome

Based on this and other research Lord Ashcroft published Smell The Coffee: A Wake-Up Call For The Conservative Party. The publication was widely reviewed in the media as an important contribution to political debate and helped establish the author’s reputation as a leading advocate of reform in The Conservative Party.