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The Times Poll - November 2009

Fieldwork: November 6th 2009 - November 8th 2009

published by The Times

Change since previous Times poll (October 7th-9th) shown in brackets

Labour 29% (-1%)
Conservative 39% (-1%)
Lib Dem 18% (-)
Others 14% (+2%)

The 14% for ‘Others' breaks down as:

UKIP 4%
Green 4%
BNP 2%
SNP 2%
Plaid Cymru 1%
‘Another party' 1%

I'd like to ask how optimistic or pessimistic you are about Britain's economy. Thinking about all the things that may affect the economy - such as changes in salaries and wages, the level of interest rates and tax, the rates of inflation and unemployment, and the strength of the pound – how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year a) for the country as a whole, b) for you and your family

 Sep 03Mar 04Nov 04Apr 05Nov 05Mar 07Sep 07Apr 08Jul 08Nov 08Jan 09Feb 09Mar 09Jun 09Jul 09Nov 09
Country as a whole - Well65%64%64%77%64%56%53%39%22%31%18%20%20%32%25%33%
Country as a whole - Badly36%29%28%19%28%36%45%59%77%66%79%77%78%63%73%64%
Country as a Whole: Net+29%+35%+36%+58%+36%+20%+8%-20%-55%-35%-61%-57%-58%-31%-48%-31%
Me & Family - Well65%63%63%75%63%60%61%50%32%51%46%49%47%46%46%50%
Me & Family - Badly35%31%28%19%28%34%34%47%66%44%50%48%51%50%52%46%
Me & Family: Net+30%+32%+35%+56%+35%+26%+27%+3%-34%+7%-4%+1%-4%-4%-6%+4%

The next general election, for Westminster MPs, has to take place in the next year or so. Which of the following do you think is the most likely result at the next general election?

[Change since October shown in brackets]

 AllLabConLib Dem
A Conservative landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)14%
(-)
9%
(+1%)
22%
(-4%)
13%
(-)
A Conservative victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons36%
(-7%)
18%
(-3%)
60%
(-3%)
34%
(-21%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but the Conservatives are the largest party15%
(+4%)
6%
(-10%)
12%
(+4%)
25%
(+13%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but Labour are the largest party11%
(+5%)
22%
(+10%)
2%
(+1%)
6%
(-1%)
A Labour victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons11%
(-1%)
36%
(+5%)
2%
(-)
11%
(+4%)
A Labour landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)5%
(+1%)
7%
(+1%)
1%
(+1%)
8%
(+6%)

Which of the following is closest to your view?

(Change since October shown in brackets)

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
British troops should remain in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated and the situation there is stable, even if that takes many years28%
(+1%)
39%
(-1%)
17%
(-)
27%
(-6%)
30%
(+1%)
30%
(+4%)
24%
(+5%)
32%
(-2%)
33%
(-2%)
24%
(-17%)
A timetable should be set for withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan within the next year or so & we should stick to that timetable regardless of the situation in Afghanistan at the time32%
(-)
30%
(+4%)
34%
(-3%)
38%
(+2%)
36%
(+5%)
27%
(-6%)
24%
(-2%)
28%
(-3%)
37%
(-1%)
35%
(+6%)
British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan now35%
(-1%)
27%
(-5%)
43%
(+3%)
31%
(+3%)
32%
(-3%)
38%
(+1%)
43%
(-3%)
35%
(+5%)
28% (+3%)37%
(+8%)
 JulySeptemberOctoberNovember
British troops should remain in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated and the situation there is stable, even if that takes many years29%28%27%28%
A timetable should be set for withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan within the next year or so and we should stick to that timetable regardless of the situation in Afghanistan at the time33%40%32%32%
British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan now34%29%36%35%

This week the Lisbon Treaty, which reforms the working of the EU and creates a new position of EU President, completed the final stage of its ratification by EU member states and will shortly become law. Some people have said that even though it is now too late to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, there should be a referendum early in the next Parliament on the general issue of Britain's relations with the EU. Other people have said that it would be pointless to have a referendum unless specific further changes in Britain's relations with the EU were being proposed – and that the upcoming general election will enable the political parties to seek a clear mandate for their general approach to relations with the EU, making a referendum unnecessary. Which of these viewpoints do you agree with more?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DE
There should be a referendum early in the next Parliament on the general issue of Britain's relations with the EU46%45%46%43%43%52%46%
It would be pointless to have a referendum on Europe unless specific further changes in Britain's relations with the EU were being proposed45%51%45%53%51%41%45%
Net 'should be a referendum early in the next Parliament'1%-6%1%-10%-8%11%1%
 LabConLib Dem
There should be a referendum early in the next Parliament on the general issue of Britain's relations with the EU36%59%40%
It would be pointless to have a referendum on Europe unless specific further changes in Britain's relations with the EU were being proposed60%37%58%
Net 'should be a referendum early in the next Parliament'-24%22%-18%

Climate change & the Copenhagen Summit

From what you know and have heard, do you think that the Earth's climate is changing and global warming taking place?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLib Dem18-3435-5455+
Yes83%79%86%86%82%81%81%86%77%88%82%86%79%
No15%18%12%12%16%17%16%12%20%12%16%12%15%
Net 'Yes'68%61%74%74%66%64%65%74%57%76%66%74%64%

Still thinking about climate change and global warming, based on however much or little you know about this, please say which of the following statements comes closest to your own view, even if none of them exactly describes what you think.

All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLib Dem
It is now an established scientific fact that a climate change is largely man-made50%50%51%49%53%48%49%52%50%53%
There is a widespread theory that climate change is largely man-made but this has not yet been conclusively proved39%38%39%43%36%39%37%34%38%38%
Man-made climate change is environmentalist propaganda for which there is little or no real evidence9%10%8%7%10%10%11%13%9%9%
All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)18-3435-5455+
It is now an established scientific fact that a climate change is largely man-made52%47%53%
There is a widespread theory that climate change is largely man-made but this has not yet been conclusively proved38%40%38%
Man-made climate change is environmentalist propaganda for which there is little or no real evidence10%10%8%
All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)18-3435-5455+
It is now an established scientific fact that a climate change is largely man-made52%47%53%
There is a widespread theory that climate change is largely man-made but this has not yet been conclusively proved38%40%38%
Man-made climate change is environmentalist propaganda for which there is little or no real evidence10%10%8%
ALLAllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLib Dem
Climate change is happening & is now established as largely man-made41%40%43%43%44%39%40%45%38%47%
Climate change is happening, but not yet proven to be largely man-made32%30%33%37%29%31%30%30%29%33%
Climate change is happening, but it is environmentalist propaganda that it is man-made8%8%7%6%8%8%9%11%7%8%
Climate change is not happening15%18%12%12%16%17%16%12%20%12%
ALL18-3435-5455+
Climate change is happening & is now established as largely man-made42%41%42%
Climate change is happening, but not yet proven to be largely man-made31%34%30%
Climate change is happening, but it is environmentalist propaganda that it is man-made8%7%6%
Climate change is not happening16%12%15%

Some people regard climate change as far and away the most serious problem we face as a country and internationally. Other people say that climate change is a very serious problem, but other problems are even more important. And some people say that climate change is not really a serious problem at all. Which of these is closest to your view?

All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLib Dem
The most serious problem we face34%38%31%36%34%34%33%37%28%36%
A serious problem, but other problems are more serious62%56%66%61%62%61%61%60%68%62%
Not really a serious problem4%5%3%3%3%5%5%3%4%1%
All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)18-3435-5455+
The most serious problem we face36%35%32%
A serious problem, but other problems are more serious61%61%63%
Not really a serious problem4%4%5%

• Taking into account the minority (15%) who don't believe that climate change is happening, among all adults, just over half (51%) think climate change is happening and is a serious problem, but that other problems are more serious. Just over a quarter of all adults (28%) think that climate change is happening and is far and away the most serious problem we face. Only 3% of all adults think that climate change is taking place but it is not really a serious problem.

Would you say that, in general, the risks of climate change and its possible consequences have been presented proportionately, or do you think they have been understated, or do you think they have been exaggerated?

All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLib Dem
Proportionately38%33%41%44%40%30%34%37%36%40%
Understated38%41%36%34%37%45%40%43%33%36%
Exaggerated22%25%19%21%20%23%24%17%29%22%
All believing that ‘the Earth's climate is changing & global warming taking place' (83%)18-3435-5455+
Proportionately37%37%39%
Understated37%43%35%
Exaggerated26%17%23%

• Taking into account the minority who don't believe that climate change is happening, opinion splits almost equally between those (31%) who think climate change is happening and that the risks and consequences have been presented proportionately, those (32%) who think climate change is happening and that the risks & consequences have been understated and those (33%) who either think climate change isn't happening, or think it is happening and that the risks and consequences have been exaggerated.

A major international summit on climate change is being held in Copenhagen in a few weeks time, to seek agreement between countries on further action to reduce carbon dioxide and other emissions that are said to contribute to climate change. Please say whether you support or oppose each of the following possible measures to help achieve this reduction. If you don't have a clear view either way, please say so.

(Change since November 2006 shown in brackets where applicable)

% supportingAllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLib Dem18-3435-5455+
New taxes on air travel with the aim of reducing the number of flights people take57%
(+7%)
55%
(+2%)
58%
(+10%)
60%
(+8%)
56%
(+13%)
57%
(+1%)
54%
(+3%)
60%
(+12%)
53%
(+3%)
64%
(+6%)
53%
(+7%)
59%
(+10%)
57%
(+2%)
Increasing the cost of motoring to encourage people to drive less?44%
(+3%)
41%
(-1%)
47%
(+7%)
43%
(+2%)
45%
(+11%)
41%
(-)
47%
(-)
56%
(+9%)
35%
(+2%)
50%
(-5%)
44%
(+6%)
43%
(+2%)
45%
(+1%)
Much higher taxes on cars that use a lot of petrol and emit a lot of carbon dioxide68%
(-6%)
64%
(-9%)
72%
(-4%)
76%
(-3%)
70%
(-2%)
61%
(-12%)
64%
(-9%)
76%
(+5%)
64%
(-6%)
76%
(-12%)
66%
(-5%)
70%
(-6%)
68%
(-6%)
New building regulations for all new houses to meet the highest standards of insulation & make more use of renewal energy such as solar power, even if this increases the cost of new home87%
(-)
86%
(-1%)
88%
(+1%)
90%
(+5%)
88%
(+3%)
85%
(-4%)
84%
(-5%)
90%
(+3%)
89%
(-)
85%
(-1%)
87%
(+8%)
88%
(-1%)
86%
(-6%)
Increasing the cost of meat, because the farming of cows and pigs is a major contributor to methane emissions, a cause of climate change41%38%42%44%37%45%37%47%36%46%39%44%38%
Setting limits on carbon dioxide emissions and making companies pay for their emissions, even if this results in higher prices for manufactured goods & energy69%69%69%75%71%67%61%73%65%81%67%71%69%
.