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The Times Poll – 19th July 2009

Fieldwork: July 17th 2009 - July 19th 2009

published by The Times

 AllLabConLD
ALL CONSERVATIVE VICTORY51%
(-)
31%
(+8%)
78%
(-)
49%
(-12%)
ALL LABOUR VICTORY15%
(+1%)
40%
(-1%)
5%
(-3%)
14%
(+3%)
ALL HUNG PARLIAMENT25%
(+2%)
24%
(-6%)
15%
(+4%)
31%
(+6%)

The next general election, for Westminster MPs, has to take place in the next year or so. Which of the following do you think is the most likely result at the next general election?

[Change since 27-28 May shown in brackets]

 AllLabConLib Dem
A Conservative landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)14%
(-)
4%
(-3%)
29%
(+6%)
4%
(-7%)
A Conservative victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons37%
(-)
27%
(+11%)
49%
(-6%)
45%
(-5%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but the Conservatives are the largest party15%
(+2%)
7%
(-3%)
13%
(+3%)
20%
(+2%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but Labour are the largest party10%
(-)
17%
(-3%)
2%
(+1%)
11%
(+4%)
A Labour victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons10%
(+1%)
27%
(-1%)
5%
(-)
9%
(+2%)
A Labour landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)5%
(-)
13%
(-)
0%
(-3%)
5%
(+1%)

I'd like to ask how optimistic or pessimistic you are about Britain's economy. Thinking about all the things that may affect the economy - such as changes in salaries and wages, the level of interest rates and tax, the rates of inflation and unemployment, and the strength of the pound – how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year a) for the country as a whole, b) for you and your family

 Sep 03Mar 04Nov 04Apr 05Nov 05Mar 07Sep 07Apr 08Jul 08Nov 08Jan 09Feb 09Mar 09Jun 09Jul 09
Country as a whole - Well65%64%64%77%64%56%53%39%22%31%18%20%20%32%25%
Country as a whole - Badly36%29%28%19%28%36%45%59%77%66%79%77%78%63%73%
Country as a Whole - Net+29%+35%+36%+58%+36%+20%+8%-20%-55%-35%-61%-57%-58%-31%-48%
Me & Family - Well65%63%63%75%63%60%61%50%32%51%46%49%47%46%46%
Me & Family - Badly35%31%28%19%28%34%34%47%66%44%50%48%51%50%52%
Me & Family – Net+30%+32%+35%+56%+35%+26%+27%+3%-34%+7%-4%+1%-4%-4%-6%

Change since previous Times poll (June 9th-10th) shown in brackets

Labour 26% (+2%)
Conservative 38% (+2%)
Lib Dem 20% (+1%)
Others 16% (-5%)

The 16% for ‘Others' breaks down as:

UKIP 5%
Green 5%
BNP 3%
SNP 3%
Plaid Cymru 1%

Which of the following is closest to your view?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
British troops should remain in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated and the situation there is stable, even if that takes many years29%38%20%39%23%29%24%38%29%34%
A timetable should be set for withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan within the next year or so & we should stick to that timetable regardless of the situation in Afghanistan at the time33%29%36%37%34%28%29%29%41%36%
British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan now34%29%38%18%38%39%42%29%27%20%

Do you think that success in the war in Afghanistan would make a terrorist attack on the UK more likely or less likely – or would it make no difference either way to the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the UK?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
More likely27%27%26%27%28%25%26%32%24%30%
Less likely16%19%14%19%14%15%17%23%17%15%
No difference57%54%60%54%58%60%57%46%58%55%
Net MORE likely11%8%12%8%14%10%9%9%7%15%
 AllLabConLD
CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY66%
(+2%)
38%
(+5%)
91%
(+3%)
69%
(-10%)
LABOUR LARGEST PARTY25%
(+1%)
57%
(-4%)
7%
(-2%)
25%
(+7%)

To the best of your knowledge, how well equipped are Britain's troops fighting in Afghanistan?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Very well equipped3%4%3%3%4%2%5%7%2%3%
Quite well equipped33%35%31%37%30%32%33%47%27%39%
All 'Well equipped'36%39%34%40%34%34%38%54%29%42%
Quite badly equipped43%41%44%46%45%40%40%33%48%44%
Very badly equipped21%20%22%15%21%26%23%13%22%14%
All 'badly equipped'64%61%66%61%66%66%63%46%70%58%
Net 'well equipped'-28%-22%-32%-21%-32%-32%-25%8%-41%-16%

Do you think that British soldiers have been killed or injured in Iraq as a direct result of not being well enough equipped?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Yes67%67%68%60%70%74%66%57%76%57%
No25%27%23%30%24%21%24%36%18%36%
Don't know8%6%9%10%6%6%9%8%7%7%
Net 'Yes'42%40%45%30%46%53%42%21%58%21%

Which of the three main political parties – (rotate order) Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat - do you think has been done the best job of responding to the abuse of the system of Parliamentary allowances by some MPs? If you think that that all have done an equally good job, or that none of them has done a good job of responding to the issue, please say so?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Conservative11%15%8%11%11%16%8%6%28%3%
Labour5%4%7%5%2%7%8%18%3%3%
Liberal Democrat9%9%9%15%11%5%6%5%9%17%
All of them equally20%20%21%18%18%20%26%24%23%24%
None of them47%48%47%46%48%46%49%45%35%48%
Don't know6%4%8%4%9%6%4%1%2%5%

Government borrowing has risen significantly in recent months to fund the measures taken to prevent the collapse of banks and to address the effects of recession. All the main political parties agree that whoever wins the next election, steps will have to be taken to reduce the level of government debt.

At a time of low or no economic growth, there are two main ways in which governments can reduce debt – by increasing taxes and by reducing the amount spent on public services and the running of government departments. Bearing that in mind, which of the following general approaches to the rebalancing of the public finances would you prefer to see?

[Change since April 15th-16th, when this question was asked in a poll for the BBC Westminster Hour programme, shown in brackets]

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
A roughly equal split between tax increases and cuts in public spending38%
(+1%)
38%
(+5%)
38%
(-2%)
39%
(-4%)
46%
(+14%)
29%
(-10%)
33%
(-2%)
35%
(-)
47%
(+9%)
48%
(-1%)
More emphasis on tax increases, with fewer cuts in public spending11%
(+1%)
13%
(+2%)
9%
(-)
14%
(+3%)
11%
(-2%)
6%
(-2%)
13%
(+6%)
18%
(+4%)
5%
(+1%)
19%
(+9%)
Just tax increases and no cuts in public spending11%
(-)
11%
(-1%)
10%
(+1%)
12%
(+3%)
8%
(-3%)
11%
(-)
12%
(-)
17%
(+4%)
6%
(-3%)
14%
(+2%)
More emphasis on reduced public spending, with fewer tax increases14%
(-1%)
13%
(-5%)
15%
(+2%)
13%
(-1%)
12%
(-6%)
19%
(+10%)
14%
(-4%)
10%
(-5%)
17%
(-3%)
16%
(+2%)
Just reductions in public spending and no tax increases21%
(-)
22%
(-1%)
19%
(-2%)
18%
(-2%)
18%
(-3%)
28%
(+1%)
21%
(+3%)
18%
(-)
20%
(-5%)
9%
(-2%
 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
A roughly equal split between tax increases and cuts in public spending38%
(+1%)
38%
(+5%)
38%
(-2%)
39%
(-4%)
46%
(+14%)
29%
(-10%)
33%
(-2%)
35%
(-)
47%
(+9%)
48%
(-1%)
More tax increases, fewer/no cuts in public spending22%
(+1%)
24%
(+1%)
19%
(+1%)
26%
(+6%)
19%
(-5%)
17%
(-2%)
25%
(+6%)
35%
(+8%)
11%
(-2%)
33%
(+11%)
More emphasis spending cuts, fewer/no tax increases35%
(-1%)
35%
(-4%)
34%
(-)
31%
(-3%)
30%
(-9%)
47%
(+11%)
35%
(-1%)
28%
(-5%)
37%
(-8%)
25%
(-)

From what you know, do you think it is now inevitable that there will be significant cuts in public spending after the next election regardless of the outcome of the election?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Yes81%81%80%85%82%82%74%81%87%83%
No15%15%15%11%16%13%21%15%11%17%
Net 'Yes'66%66%65%74%66%69%53%66%76%66%

If there have to be cuts in public spending, which of the two main parties – Labour or Conservative - would you trust most to cut spending in ways that don't harm important public services and that minimise the negative impact on ordinary people?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Conservative38%36%40%41%42%38%30%10%81%32%
Labour28%29%28%29%28%20%36%79%5%23%
Both equally6%4%7%6%6%5%5%4%4%8%
Neither24%27%21%22%19%31%24%7%8%32%
Don't know4%4%5%2%5%6%4%0%2%5%
Net Conservative lead over Labour10%7%12%12%14%18%-6%-69%76%9%

Currently it is illegal in the UK to assist a person in committing suicide. There have been a number of reported cases of people travelling to a Swiss clinic where they can legally be given drugs that will cause their painless death. Most, but not all, of those taking this course of action have been suffering from terminal illness. Do you think that, in cases where an individual is of sound mind and has made unambiguously clear that they want to die and want or need help to do so, the law in the UK should or should not be changed?

To legalise doctor-assisted suicide, similar to what is practised in Switzerland, so that a doctor could assist someone to commit suicide without facing prosecution

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Yes, the law should be changed74%73%74%74%71%80%71%61%79%73%
No, the law shouldn't be changed23%24%22%23%27%16%25%35%18%21%
Don't know3%3%4%3%3%4%4%4%3%7%
Net 'Yes'51%49%52%51%44%64%46%26%61%52%
 All18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Yes, the law should be changed74%64%75%78%75%77%70%
No, the law shouldn't be changed23%34%21%16%22%21%26%
Don't know3%2%3%6%3%2%3%
Net 'Yes'51%30%54%62%53%56%44%
 All18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Yes, the law should be changed74%64%75%78%75%77%70%
No, the law shouldn't be changed23%34%21%16%22%21%26%
Don't know3%2%3%6%3%2%3%
Net 'Yes'51%30%54%62%53%56%44%
 All18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Yes, the law should be changed60%49%58%68%69%62%54%
No, the law shouldn't be changed37%47%39%28%29%37%44%
Don't know3%4%3%4%2%1%2%
Net 'Yes'23%2%19%40%40%25%10%

To legalise non-doctor assisted suicide, that is to ensure that a friend, partner, spouse or other family member could assist someone to commit suicide without facing prosecution

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Yes, the law should be changed60%64%57%53%60%70%60%50%66%52%
No, the law shouldn't be changed37%34%40%45%39%26%36%47%31%47%
Don't know3%2%3%2%2%4%3%3%3%2%
Net 'Yes'23%30%17%8%21%44%24%3%35%5%

Those saying yes to either proposition in the previous question (79% of all respondents), then asked

If the law were to be changed in this way in the UK, do you think that

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction13%17%9%10%13%14%16%14%8%6%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances85%80%89%88%85%84%81%81%91%94%
Don't know2%3%2%1%3%2%4%5%1%0%
Net 'without restrictions'-72%-63%-80%-78%-72%-70%-65%-67%-83%-88%
 All18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction13%13%10%10%9%19%17%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances85%85%86%88%90%79%79%
Don't know2%2%4%2%0%1%3%
Net 'without restrictions'-72%-72%-76%-78%-81%-60%-62%

Those saying yes to either proposition in the previous question (79% of all respondents), then asked

If the law were to be changed in this way in the UK, do you think that

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction13%17%9%10%13%14%16%14%8%6%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances85%80%89%88%85%84%81%81%91%94%
Don't know2%3%2%1%3%2%4%5%1%0%
Net 'without restrictions'-72%-63%-80%-78%-72%-70%-65%-67%-83%-88%
 All18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction13%13%10%10%9%19%17%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances85%85%86%88%90%79%79%
Don't know2%2%4%2%0%1%3%
Net 'without restrictions'-72%-72%-76%-78%-81%-60%-62%

Those favouring the legalisation of assisted suicide only in certain circumstances (67% of all respondents), then asked

Do you think that assisted suicide should or should not be legalised in the UK in each of the following circumstances?

 Should be legalisedShould not be legalisedNet 'should be legalised'
People with a terminal illness95%4%91%
People suffering extreme pain, even if not with a terminal illness56%38%18%
People with a degenerative condition, even if not a terminal illness65%30%35%
People with a severe physical disability, even if otherwise healthy48%48%0%
People who simply wish to die at the same time as a long-term spouse or partner who has a terminal illness34%63%-29%
Net 'should be legalised'AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
People with a terminal illness91%92%89%95%85%93%90%87%85%89%
People suffering extreme pain, even if not with a terminal illness18%15%21%25%-3%20%35%25%20%21%
People with a degenerative condition, even if not a terminal illness35%30%39%44%40%12%43%50%30%39%
People with a severe physical disability, even if otherwise healthy0%-1%0%12%-8%-10%2%2%0%7%
People who simply wish to die at the same time as a long-term spouse or partner who has a terminal illness-29%-24%-33%-20%-33%-53%-10%-29%-23%-28%
Net 'should be legalised'All18-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
People with a terminal illness91%94%92%88%92%89%90%
People suffering extreme pain, even if not with a terminal illness18%44%3%26%3%17%23%
People with a degenerative condition, even if not a terminal illness35%30%33%42%48%18%34%
People with a severe physical disability, even if otherwise healthy0%12%-11%7%-5%8%-10%
People who simply wish to die at the same time as a long-term spouse or partner who has a terminal illness-29%-34%-35%-42%-41%-17%-1%

How worried are you, if at all, about swine flu affecting your family?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DEChildren under 18No children under 18
Very worried16%14%17%11%13%17%23%18%14%
Slightly worried46%42%50%46%48%48%42%52%44%
Not worried at all38%44%33%43%40%35%35%29%42%

How confident are you that you know what the symptoms are of swine flu and that you would recognise those symptoms if you or a family member had them?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DEChildren under 18No children under 18
Very confident29%29%30%35%32%25%23%35%27%
Quite confident52%49%55%46%54%58%51%48%54%
Not confident at all19%22%15%19%13%17%26%17%19%

If you thought you had the symptoms of swine flu, which of the following would you do? Do you think that the government has done all that it reasonably can to prepare for the swine flu epidemic and its effects, or do you think that the government could be doing more?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DEChildren under 18No children under 18
Stay at home and phone your GP85%80%88%82%87%83%87%85%85%
Phone NHS Direct60%55%65%56%67%59%57%67%57%
Check on the internet for information and advice56%55%57%60%70%53%38%71%50%
Go to your GP37%40%34%33%34%44%39%36%37%
Go to the nearest Accident & Emergency department19%20%17%13%19%15%27%21%17%
Buy tamiflu over the internet13%14%13%9%17%12%12%15%12%

Do you think that the government has done all that it reasonably can to prepare for the swine flu epidemic and its effects, or do you think that the government could be doing more?

 AllMenWomenABC1C2DELabConLD
Has done all it reasonably can62%61%63%66%70%56%55%70%68%71%
Could be doing more35%37%34%32%28%43%41%29%31%29%
Net 'doing all it reasonably can'27%24%29%34%42%13%14%41%37%42%
 Children under 18No children under 1818-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465+
Has done all it reasonably can61%63%52%56%61%69%63%68%
Could be doing more38%34%46%44%38%29%34%27%
Net 'doing all it reasonably can'23%29%6%12%23%40%29%41%
.